Recently, discussions about Western, especially European countries’ engagement with the Taliban have become more serious than ever. After the Taliban declared that documents issued by Afghan diplomatic missions in countries and cities such as London, Berlin, Bonn, Brussels, Switzerland, Austria, France, Italy, Greece, Poland, Australia, Sweden, Norway, and Canada were not recognized, some Western governments appear to have acquiesced to this announcement and begun negotiating with the Kabul regime. The Taliban argued that these diplomatic missions did not heed the directives of their foreign ministry. They suggested that Afghan migrants in Europe, instead of approaching these addresses, could refer to Afghan diplomatic missions in countries and cities that align with their stance: Spain, the Holand, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Munich in Germany.
So far, three countries appear to have responded to the Taliban’s request: the United Kingdom, Germany, and Norway. London has closed the Afghan embassy on its soil and claimed that its staff had been dismissed by the Taliban. Zalmay Rasool, the Afghan ambassador in London, has confirmed the embassy’s closure. Germany has also asked the Afghan diplomatic missions in Berlin and Bonn to follow the Taliban’s directives as Munich’s mission does. However, Germany’s situation is somewhat different, as it relates to the deportation of Afghan migrants and their forced return to Afghanistan. Norway has also closed its Afghan embassy, and Yusuf Ghafourzi, the Afghan ambassador in Oslo, published his farewell letter in the media. Norway has had a warm relationship with the Taliban over the past three years and was the first European country to host a meeting with Taliban officials.
Messages and Consequences
1) While the United Kingdom, Norway, and Germany have not officially handed over their Afghan diplomatic missions to the Taliban, their actions in obstructing the continued operation of these missions represent a form of acquiescence to the group’s demands. Germany has not closed its diplomatic missions but has instructed them to comply with the Taliban’s orders. If Western governments do not reverse their current path, they may even begin to host Taliban diplomats on their soil. The reality is that Western governments are inclined towards engaging with the Taliban, yet they must also consider the concerns of their parliaments, civil society, free media, and professional associations. Without these concerns, European governments would likely have already accepted Taliban diplomats.
2) The stance of these three countries is likely to further provoke regional governments into engaging with the Taliban. It is not the case that if Western countries approach the Taliban, Eastern countries will turn towards anti-Taliban forces; rather, both sides are likely to align with the Taliban. For instance, Rasoul Mousavi, Director General for South Asia at Iran’s Foreign Ministry, has described the closure of the Afghan embassy in London as a step towards closer relations between European capitals and Kabul. This indicates that neighboring and regional governments opposed to the West are closely monitoring Western policies towards the Taliban and are striving to prevent the group from shifting allegiances. If the region was the initial mover in transferring Afghan embassies to the Taliban, Western governments are now continuing this trend. The competition for proximity to the Taliban might even prompt some regional countries to formally recognize the group. The region has moved beyond merely accepting Taliban diplomats and is now considering removing the group from the list of “proscribed organizations.” Once delisting from the terrorism list becomes routine, formal recognition could also come into play.
3) The concessions made by European governments to the Taliban will likely embolden the group to be even more reckless regarding the rights and freedoms of the Afghan people, especially women. The Taliban may become deluded into thinking that if they do not relent and continue their oppression, the world will increasingly see the need to engage with them. This is not merely a delusion but a reality. European countries are closing Afghan embassies while, just weeks ago, the Taliban approved the ” Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice” law, which completely excludes women from public life and imposes severe restrictions on men’s lives as well. Western governments, on one hand, harshly criticize the Taliban’s actions, while on the other, they view engagement with the group as unavoidable. In a situation where the world has yet to recover from the shock of the Taliban’s new law, the European government’s embrace of this group not only fails to bring good news to the Afghan people but also puts their claims of defending human rights into question.
Unfortunately, the primary victim in this scenario is the Afghan people. Over the past three years, it has become evident that democracy and human rights are merely rhetorical and declarative for countries. No country is willing to sour its relations with the Taliban due to human rights violations unless its territory is directly threatened by the Afghan origin. Otherwise, efforts will focus on satisfying the Taliban.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
